By LTC Sargis Sangari
The Iranian nuclear deal must be seen from multiple perspectives: military, economic, political, and social.
Starting from the political perspective: The POTUS says that we do not want this deal because it is not fair. But the I-5 approved it, and even before its due date President Trump has chosen to possibly walk away from the deal while of France, Germany, and Britain have stated that their countries would continue to support the deal even if the U.S. walked away from it.
From military perspective: The U.S. and Iran have “shared” Iraq for several years. In Syria, Iran has slowly been replacing U.S. force structures, including establishing a base in that country. As result Iranian forces operating in Syria are well positioned to fight ISIS and strike at anyone else seeking to acquire Syrian territory. Russia has also established a large footprint in Syria and is using its military presence to prop up the Assad regime.
In analyzing the situation from the economy perspective, we must first ask who stands to benefit the most, in financial terms, from their involvement in Syria. Answer: Iran. Iran has natural gas, and if it is pipelined to Europe via Iraq and Syria, Russia’s position as a supplier of natural gas to Europe is compromised, which means that it will no longer have the means to blackmail Europe into doing its political bidding. Iran thus becomes an economic crossroads for trade between Europe, Africa, and Asia.
If the POTUS leaves this deal and Europe stays, the Iranians will have succeeded in driving a wedge between the U.S. and Europe. This will strengthen the Iranian position and weaken the U.S. position overall in the Middle East. As a result the region will become steadily more volatile, leading to the outbreak of major conflict with Israel having to be the front line in all these conflicts within the region as the Arab nations and Iran jockey to see who will be the lead of Islam and possible functional peace within the region.