The 4th National Climate Assessment was released Friday, November 23rd and was promptly promoted by vast media coverage and wringing of hands due to its dire predictions for the planet’s future. Like the previous three assessments, it was mandated by the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990. Like the previous iterations, it relies heavily on failed climate models to make speculations of calamitous events many decades into the future.
The cover photo is of western wildfires and the first several paragraphs of the summary report-in brief is dedicated to a linkage between man-made warming and an increase in wildfires. If they were going to open with linking man-made warming to catastrophic events, they really should have picked that is not so easily debunked. After all, according the National Interagency Fire Center, both the number and area burned in the United States has fallen dramatically, not increased as alleged in this report. Additionally, according to CalFire, the number of fires in the Golden State has declined by 50%. Their predictions are just that, speculation of what may or may not occur many decades to come based on severely flawed model, rather than look at what is happening in the real world.
The report then goes on for 1,600 pages detailing the entirely negative consequences of increasing CO2 and warming weather, while ignoring any benefits that may accrue. We know that the climate models used over-predict warming by 2.5 to 3 times too much, yet those are the pillars of justification relied on in this report.
A White House spokesperson downplayed the report’s significance, telling the BBC that it was “largely based on the most extreme scenario, which contradicts long-established trends by assuming that… there would be limited technology and innovation, and a rapidly expanding population.”